One small step for a company, one giant leap for machines
I made that same within-a-decade prediction in a conference talk early last year.
I posed the question in a Q&A at a panel at SXSW earlier this week, three of the four panelists said within 5 years; one said in TWO years.
I think Chomsky summed this up quite nicely
Doesn't think, doesn't reason and doesn't understand. Has no workdy knowledge, just statistical likelihoods of word sequences in context of other word sequences. The illusion of understanding. Doesn't matter how large you scale it, it will never think or reason.
Time between release dates does not equate to time between dev and training dates. This can be developed in parallel and not released until desired.
Human language isn't "laden" with metaphors, it is bejeweled with them.
"GPT-4 supports reasoning..." -- nope, no reasoning here. It accepts images as prompts, just as it accepts text as prompts, and it guesses a high likelihood successor to those prompts. That's not reasoning.